Is IWM setting up for additional downside?


IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF) looks precarious here if it breaks below $190. First stop could be around $165, but if that doesn't hold up $145-150 is an area that could be tested. Above $193 and I would be inclined to cover.


This is assuming we see strong downside momentum in this lower area without much transactional history. Usually prices get wild! That's what Horse calls the 'decision zone.'


The small cap index is uniquely vulnerable in an environment where risk appetites are diminishing as its components tend to be lower quality, more speculative stocks. The average PE of the Russell 2000 is about 65 here, and a fair number of the companies themselves will have serious trouble refinancing their corporate debt to rates that are manageable for their respective debt loads in an environment of rising rates and tightening financial conditions.


This short, if the opportunity arises to short below $190, combines technical, macro, and fundamental disciplines, which allows the thesis to be checked across all three. Should any of the three be invalidated, one can exit the position knowing why that exit was made. If instead, however, the Russell 2000 does complete this downward price movement it could be a rather profitable trade.