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The Powell Pump & Dump Recap

I wanted to do a recap on my day trading ES_F. I usually do this on Twitter when I think there's some teachable moments, but Twitter is becoming a toxic hellhole and I'd rather talk with all of you because I sincerely appreciate your early support of this crazy website. Full Transparency: I had a few great trades today and a few crappy ones. If you've been following me on Twitter for a while, you know I like talking about the crappy ones in detail because I think there's almost always something to be learned from it. Today's main crappy trade for me was a headscratcher, so let's talk about it... Allow me to walk through the morning step-by-step:

Here we are right as the opening bell is ringing. Everything is setting up perfectly:

  • We're above my weekly pivot

  • We built a somewhat bullish P shape profile overnight (see profile on the left)

  • We're opening at/above Previous Day High (pdhi, green line on the chart)

  • We're opening above Value Area High from the overnight

  • We are above that 4708 level that I've been in love with lately for bullish breakouts

So, time get to long as hell.

Long trade works, we pump for Powell super aggressively, eating up all of those 200-300 size lots that were sitting on the offer all night. Delta by Price is ridiculously blue (on my chart that's positive, means the buyers are aggressive as hell). Someone hammers over 1000 +Delta around 4720 and we establish the current POC. No problems in sight. Now here's where things get weird....

ES_F taps 4740 and someone aggressively buys 4738, as shown by the 1815 +Delta, and the POC shifts up...SUPER bullish, right? Right. I've circled in red where the fun starts, and where my crappy trade comes into play. Someone threw a MASSIVE buy order all the way down at 4720, which is kind of a long way down for ES_F. At the same time, that large resting order at 4750 is STILL sitting there on the book. That order has been there for a while, which gives it greater significance to me. So I'm thinking "ok we'll probably pullback because this is getting a little nuts, but it's for sure a Trend Day, so the play will be to add to longs on a dip to go get that big order at 4750..."

Here we have that perfect setup: A retest of the 30min Opening Range High. Sellers did their thing, stepped in with responsive selling, now we bounce and go get 4750...right? WRONG lol

You see, someone always knows. Always. That big ass order down at 4720 knew something, and they got their fill while we left that giant order at 4750 hanging there. I got aggressively stopped out of that add to my long. Not afraid to admit that. One of the reasons I'm posting this is because a few people sent me some comments today from another trader that has, let's say, different opinions than I do about resting limit orders and their importance. As the old joke says "Size matters." I should not have been ignoring that big order below us. Someone always knows something. Do I regret the add? Nah, it was routine. It's part of trading the way that I do, but you better believe I learned from it and won't make that mistake again. Luckily, shorting the Opening Range Lows provided some great scalps on NQ and ES later in the day.

Also, despite the chaos, ES_F did trade insanely technical today in regards to Support & Resistance:

So while I may have given some back, there was another great short opportunity (green circle) that presented itself heading into the close. I can't emphasize the importance of confluence enough. Some people can just trade using a DOM only...I can't do that. I need to see multiple charts, one with primarily volume-based data and another with Support & Resistance Lines, in order to get the full picture of what's happening. But here's the thing: We can have the best tools in the business, a refined discretionary system, and STILL make mistakes...what's important is that we stay EXCITED to learn from them. If you get down on yourself for bad trades instead of diving into what happened then you're ngmi. At this point in my trading journey, most of the things I learn are little things...and I appreciate them. It's the nuances that keep our edge sharp. Keep learning, keep grinding. -Horse

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