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Breakfast Bites - Thu Apr 06, 2023

Rise and shine everyone

Tomorrow is a market holiday so we’re likely to see lower liquidity today. Yesterday’s ISM Services were not great and neither were the ADP employment numbers. Tomorrow is still Job Friday and we’ll be getting the unemployment numbers at 8:30am ET.

Mortgage rates declined slightly and Mortgage Purchase Applications data shows a decline of -3.5% WoW (-35.5% YoY) to 166.6 on the Index to close out March. The housing sector continues to deteriorate.

US Futures largely flat, alongside the US Dollar Index, Oil and Gold. Not many moves this morning. Yields slightly lower across the curve. BTC down to $27,936. Long bonds are up again this morning with junk bonds feeling the pressure.

Asia and Australia

  • Asian equities ended mixed Thursday. Nikkei continued its recent sell off but was off its troughs of the day. Greater China edged higher post stronger-than-expected PMI services data. South Korea led the rest lower; losses in Taiwan, Australia and Southeast Asia.

  • India holds key rate in surprise decision, keeps door open for more hikes

  • Caixin services PMI was 57.8 in March, above consensus 55, following 55 in prior month. It was the 3rd consecutive month of expansion.

  • Australia Bans TikTok on Official Devices as Concern Spreads

  • International prices of key metals used in auto production, including magnesium and lithium, are plunging, reflecting lackluster demand in China.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

  • European equity markets higher. Real Estate and Utilities lead; Consumer Products/Services and Autos/Parts lag.

  • BoE survey shows firms expect inflation to ease, but well above 2% target. Businesses expect their output prices to increase by average of 5.3% over the next year, down 0.1% on previous month.

  • German industrial production surprised to the upside in February, up 2.0% m/m versus consensus for 0.1% gain and prior 3.7% increase.

  • Iran and Saudi Plot Path to End Rivalry That Drove Regional Wars - The two countries’ foreign ministers hold talks in Beijing.

  • Abu Dhabi’s second largest lender, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, in talks to sell $3.7B of bad debt.

The Americas

  • Google, Amazon mass layoffs in Europe stalled because of labor protections

  • Costco down -2.6% in premarket trading after they publish their monthly data showing the lowest US sales growth in almost 3 years. Takeaways focused on a number of headwinds, including the continued trend of difficult prior year comparisons, the continued shift from discretionary/big-ticket to consumables, the deflationary impact in food and gas, softer seasonals, lower tax refunds and SNAP benefits, and heightened macro concerns stemming from the turmoil in the banking sector (chart attached)


(news taken from Reuters, FT, Bloomberg; Calendar from Trading Economics)

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