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Hey Traderade Family! I hope you're all having a relaxing weekend. Just wanted to start by saying thank you for all of the well-wishes during my unexpected week off, it really meant a lot to me. I'm excited to get back to the trading desk and (hopefully) ride some of this incredible volatility we're seeing in the markets. If you're new to Traderade, I primarily trade S&P Futures (ES) and that's what this weekly blog is focused on; however, like many of you, I'm also an investor. The question I've been receiving the most lately is "Are you buying anything for your long-term portfolio right now?" The answer: A little, but like most of you I'm also looking for more information from the Fed before making any serious decisions.
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"Herein lies the recent volatility: Everyone is looking for more information from the Fed at this crucial juncture. "
Yup and that's the crux of it, because, not even JPow knows what inflation is going to do over the next 6 months. Will it keep going up, stabilize, or drop off? If it does drop, does it drop to 4.5% or 2.5%, big difference. And of course will the fed overshoot rate hikes/QT and cause a recession?
Hopefully by May, we will have some idea and by fall a really good sense of what's going on. If we don't, well, I doubt that will be good news for market.
This is a very interesting time. Normally, macro is largely an…
Great setup overnight down towards the 4350 zone, thank you!!
Can't help but wonder if we'll have a definitive answer on the 4420 question before Monday open.
It's too much to ask, but I would love a parenthetical on how you arrive at key levels to the tick. Mine is more like ~4350, ~4265 ...