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Navigating the Markets

Updated: Nov 12, 2023

I hope that everyone is having a great weekend. It's time to start preparing for what awaits us this week. But before we do, let's have a look at what's going on in the markets and beyond.

The Big Picture

The personal savings rate in the US is falling again as consumers are contending with headwinds from rising prices and many wages not keeping pace.

Credit card borrowing has risen over $1 trillion, and interest rates on credit cards are at all-time highs.

We're also seeing an increase in delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans, particularly within younger demographics and subprime borrowers.

In a nutshell, the bottom 50% of consumers are struggling while the top 20% are flourishing because they have assets that have risen quite a bit in price. It's a K-shaped recovery, and in aggregate the lower tiers of earners are getting hit particularly hard.

Credit are conditions tightening for small firms, and that is likely to put some pressure on the economy as the impacts work their way through in the form of less demand for workers and orders.

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