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Breakfast Bites - Fri Aug 04, 2023

Rise and shine everyone and Happy Friday!


The big news today is the US Jobs numbers being released at 8:30am ET. The consensus estimate is for 200k jobs; Morgan Stanley expects 190k; Goldman Sachs has 250k; Deutsche has 175k; Citi has 290k; I’ll go with the under at 195k. We need to get pool going next month!


Yesterday’s big news was Amazon holding up the stock market while Apple delivered a lackluster result. iPhone sales missed estimates and revenues were down for a 3rd quarter in a row. It’s should be a major surprise given that when you’re making phones better, refresh cycles will be longer.


US equities futures are looking slightly chipper this morning, after two down days. Oil is trading higher again, while Gold, Bitcoin and the US Dollar remain largely flat. The long end of the curve is slightly lower with the Yield Curve inverting again at -0.74%



Asia and Australia

  • Asian equities mostly higher. Hang Seng rebounded, snapping a three-day losing streak. Mainland China stocks edged up on higher trading volumes. ASX and Nikkei both higher. Taiex and Kospi closed slightly lower.

  • PBOC Governor Pan meets with property developers and pledges funding support; PBOC says bank to keep China's banking system with reasonably ample liquidity

  • Rare Politburo vow on market support driving bets Beijing will take steps to increase trading activity

  • RBA minutes released this morning: Inflation not expected to return inside 2-3% target band until late 2025, wage growth peak revised up slightly and near-term GDP growth outlook downgraded as cost of living and higher rates exerts bigger drag on consumption growth.


Europe, Middle East, Africa

  • European equity markets mostly higher, after STOXX 600 posted the third negative close in a row on Thursday

  • Saudi Arabia warns it could deepen cuts to oil production as it extends voluntary supply curbs with Russia for another month

  • Eurozone retail trade unexpectedly declined in June, coming in (0.3%) vs +0.2% expected MoM, or (1.4%) vs (1.7%) YoY.

  • German factory orders unexpectedly jumped the most in three years in June driven by large aerospace demand.

  • ECB's Lane sees lower headline inflation ahead, while core may have peaked in H1

  • Bank of England (BoE) for the first time called its current monetary policy stance "restrictive”; some investors took this as a sign that tightening may be nearing the end. We still see two more 25bps rate hikes by the MPC for this year taking the Bank Rate to 5.75%.


The Americas

  • Amazon beat driven by both AWS and ecommerce. Amazon Q2 revenue beat by 2%+ while operating income was more than 60% ahead.

  • BofA flow data shows investors fleeing equities on US recession risk though tech funds still see inflows

  • Hedge funds lose more than $6B this year betting against cruise lines and hotels after underestimating US consumer resilience

  • US 30yr Treasury bonds head for worst week of the year amid rising recession bets

Calendars

(news taken from Reuters, FT, Bloomberg; Calendar from Benzinga Pro)





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