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Breakfast Bites - Fri Jun 9th, 2023

Good morning and Happy Friday!


Last night we heard last night that more banks are cutting off Binance from the US financial system, as the increasingly troubled exchange grapples to contend with an increasing amount of scrutiny. We also saw Italian industrial production unexpected drop 1.9% month-over-month this morning.


US Futures are trading mixed today, along with rates. Bitcoin and WTI Oil are trying to recover, slightly higher. US Dollar Index and Gold remains largely flat. The Nikkei soared 1.8% overnight, while Europe is down marginally.


Asia and Australia

  • International investors are reducing positions in China's State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) due to disappointing losses. The Hang Seng China Central SOE's Index lost 9.9% from May 8 to the end of the month.

  • Japan's Q1 Ministry of Finance (MOF) corporate survey shows capital spending growing 11.0% year-on-year (y/y), indicating a positive influence on future GDP revisions.

  • South Korea's manufacturing output continues to decline, but a slowed pace suggests the worst of the slowdown might be over.

  • May PMIs reveal contraction in north Asia while south Asia expands, with conditions notably deteriorating in Taiwan and slightly improving in South Korea.

  • RBA rate hike probabilities firm up due to data exceeding expectations, with futures now indicating a 100% chance of a rate increase by August.

  • India's Q4 y/y GDP growth accelerates to 6.1%, bolstered by government and private spending, and manufacturing.

  • Japan's Nikkei 225 outperforms major global benchmarks in May, primarily driven by semiconductor and related stocks.

  • China's factory gate prices decline at the fastest pace in seven years, allowing for potential rate cuts to stimulate the economy.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa

  • BNP Paribas predicts market liquidity decline impacting risk assets, while driving bond yields and the US dollar higher.

  • Majority of economists in a Reuters poll expect the ECB to conclude its rate hiking cycle at 3.75%.

  • The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) upgrades its UK growth forecast but warns of low activity throughout the year.

  • Analysts offer differing outlooks for EUR/USD after a significant recovery since May 13th, reflecting a general decline in the US dollar rather than unique Euro strength.

The Americas

  • Binance is increasingly being isolated from the US banking system as regulatory scrutiny heats up

  • Expectations for Fed tightening increase as unexpected rate hikes by RBA and BOC suggest a potentially longer tightening cycle, but the Fed is still not expected to hike next week.

  • The US economy is defying pessimistic predictions, allowing the Fed more room to execute a soft landing.

  • US senators propose bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) bills to address growing concerns surrounding the technology.

  • Blinken may visit Beijing soon, while Biden and UK PM Sunak announce an "Atlantic declaration" to fortify economic ties between their countries.

Calendars

(news taken from Bloomberg, Reuters, AP, Nikkei, and Dow Jones)


Economic





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