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Breakfast Bites - Mon Sep 18, 2023

Rise and shine everyone and Happy Monday.

We have several rate decisions this week starting off with the big one on Wednesday - The Fed at 2pm ET and the overwhelming consensus is a pause.

On Thursday, we have the Bank of England, Riksbank (Sweden) and Norges Bank (Norway) - all three are expected to raise rates by 25bps this week.

On the Macro front we also receive housing data, jobless claims and global PMIs. We have the US long-term Treasury International Capital flows being released today as well. A higher than expected number is seen as bullish for the US Dollar.

We have a quiet week of earnings with General Mills, Autozone, FedEx and Darden reporting this week.

US Equity Futures are turning lower. Yields on the shorter end are higher with the Yield Curve at -0.72%. Gold and Bitcoin are higher while the USD Index and Oil remain flat but elevated.

Asia and Australia

  • Asian equities ended mostly lower in a quiet Monday session. Hong Kong closed with more losses and at its low of the day, mainland stocks slightly higher. The rest of the region mostly down with South Korea and Taiwan underperforming on read through from US's market Friday. Japan closed for a holiday.

  • Reuters cited a Shenzhen city police statement posted on WeChat Saturday evening announcing the detainment of some staff at China Evergrande's wealth management unit.

  • Top mainland Chinese property developers recorded close to $3B FX losses, mainly on dollar borrowings, in H1 due to yuan weakness. Adds to their struggles to service mounting debts, though actual impact depends on market levels when losses are realized.

  • Singapore exports fall again in signal regional trade remains in the doldrums. Singapore's August non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 20.1% /YoY versus forecast -15.8% and upwardly revised 20.3% YoY decline in July. Singapore is a major hub for Asian trading and this doesn’t bode well for economic activity in the region.

  • Striking workers at Chevron's (CVX-US ) Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities in Australia, which supply ~7% of global LNG, are continuing 24-hour stoppages that began on weekend

Europe, Middle East, Africa

  • European equity markets lower. Losses led by Tech Services, Consumer Services and Retail Trade. Adyen is the worst performed in the Euro Stoxx 50 at -5.3%

  • Chipmakers in focus as Nordic Semiconductor issues profit warning citing lower demand. They indicated ~11% decline in revenues, with analysts suggesting Q3 estimates may decline ~13% at mid-point.

  • Swiss Steel profit warning: Withdrew outlook of a range for adjusted EBITDA between €160 - 200M for the full year 2023, citing profits in July and August below expectations

  • Greece received a change to its sovereign rating by Moody’s Friday after market close. Moody's said it was upgrading Greece's rating from Ba3 to Ba1, with a stable outlook. But that still leaves the country's bonds one notch shy of investment grade, which would clear the way for purchases by many major global investors.

The Americas

  • Morgan Stanley's Wilson says majority of clients expect US recession next year which will be negative for risk assets.

  • UAW strike against automakers enters third day, no resolution seen. UAW chief rejects 21% pay increase offer as a non-starter.

  • House Republicans eye short-term spending deal amid looming government shutdown. The so-called "continuing resolution" would keep the government funded for 30 days with a 1% across the board cut in federal spending for every agency except the Departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs, according to two GOP sources. The deal may be dead on arrival in the Senate, but House Republicans are aiming to strengthen their hand in eventual talks with the upper chamber.

  • Gold miner Newmont Corp said on Monday it has received clearance from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board to proceed with its proposed A$26.2 billion ($16.86 billion)takeover of Australia's Newcrest Mining.

  • Hedge funds cut their net short dollar position by nearly $5 billion last week, according to the latest U.S. futures markets data, the biggest swing towards a more bullish dollar stance since May last year.


(news taken from Reuters, FT, Bloomberg; Calendar from Trading Economics)


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