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Breakfast Bites - Tue Aug 29, 2023

Rise and shine everyone!

The economic data to look out for today is the Conference Board Consumer Sentiment and the JOLTs numbers. We also have housing data - S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

The other major news hitting the headline this morning is China rolling out further stimulus measure in terms of mortgage pricing cuts. The market responded to this better than yesterday’s stock stimulus data. According to JPM, positioning still remains weak in China with more selling / shorting than buying.

El Niño expected to compound effects on global food prices of India's rice export ban and Russia's withdrawal from Black Sea grain deal. - Something to keep an eye on for Ag prices.

US Equity Futures are largely flat this morning, after closing in the green yesterday but on lower volume. Gold also remains flat; Bitcoin is lower while Crude Oil is moving higher. European gas prices higher on Chevron industrial action (full news below).

The long end of curve is getting a slight bid with the 10Y and 30Y yields slightly higher causing the Yield Curve to steepen slightly to -0.79%.

Asia and Australia

  • Asian equities ended higher across the region Tuesday. Greater China markets led by Hong Kong's three high-growth sectors, mainland benchmarks led by technology.

  • China's Bank of Communications to discuss repricing of existing mortgage rates

  • Bloomberg consensus forecast for 2023 GDP growth shaved again to 5.1% from prior 5.2%, while 2024 revised down to 4.5% from 4.8%. Noted annual projections partly reflect softer Q3 growth at 4.4% y/y from 4.6%.

  • Chinese authorities asked some mutual funds to avoid selling equities on a net basis for a day via window guidance issued by stock exchanges.

  • Vietnam exports sank for sixth consecutive month, factory output grew for second month, and credit growth slowed again in August, sending mixed messages on underlying economy.

  • Japan labor market unexpectedly softens - Unemployment rate was 2.7% in July, higher than consensus and previous month's 2.5%. Total unemployment rose sequentially for the first time in four months.

  • Iron ore futures on China's Dalian exchange trading near highest levels since mid-March after rallying ~15% from this month's lows.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

  • European equity markets higher. FTSE 100 outperforms as UK markets play catchup after Monday bank holiday. Basic Resources, Utilities and Telecom lead; Construction/Materials, Healthcare and Technology lag

  • German Gfk consumer confidence weakened to -25.5 for September versus consensus -24.3 and prior revised to -24.6 from -24.4 initially reported.

  • Holzmann and Nagel reiterate hawkish stance ahead of September meeting

  • UK shop price inflation hit a 10-month low in August, which may ease some of the pressure on BoE policymakers.

  • Unions have given notice they will initiate stoppages at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in Western Australia from next week and escalate the action every week after that.

  • French consumers massively cutting essential purchases, Carrefour CEO warns

The Americas

  • S&P Global Mobility cut its 2023 forecast for new vehicle sales by around 500K units to 15.2M. Report cited rising rates, tighter credit conditions, and high new vehicle pricing increasingly adding pressure on consumers.

  • JM Smucker reports a beat on EPS and miss on Revenues - this is a phenomenon will we continue to see with inflation retreating from highs lowering revenues, and cost improvements leading to still stable EPS numbers. They cited tough macro challenges but marginally raised guidance.

  • Best Buy posted a double beat but, barely. Comments said results were better than they expect and that this year will still remain the low point for tech and electronics demand, after the past two years of overly strong demand and pull-forward buying.

  • MMM board approves $6B faulty earplug settlement

  • Walmart, Walgreens, CVS introducing new care options normally available only at doctor's offices


(news taken from Reuters, FT, Bloomberg; Calendar from Trading Economics and Benzinga Pro)


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