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Traderade Ideas: Reap What You Sow

Agriculture has caught my eye, particularly one key grain. Today's idea has to do with a convergence of several different factors which have my attention for what may end up being a rather favorable long swing setup.


Big picture factors are playing a role with potential opportunities lining up in this space, such as more erratic weather patterns as both droughts and floods become more problematic.


The other factor is the role that the cost of hydrocarbons, particularly oil and natural gas, play in setting the price of food given their inextricable ties to industrialized agriculture.


"Farms consume energy directly in the form of gasoline, diesel, electricity, and natural gas, and indirectly in energy-intensive inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides." - USDA

The composition of this usage means agricultural producers are sensitive to both the direct prices of energy and as well the second order effects of price changes on other key products, such as fertilizers and pesticides.

This means that the rising price of oil, and to a lesser extent natural gas, may have a rather sizable impact on pricing for crops that are more energy intensive.

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